Modeling the Future Challenge

The Modeling the Future Challenge offers high school students a thrilling opportunity to engage in real-world competition that integrates math modeling, data analysis, and risk management. Participants undertake research projects utilizing real-world data to analyze risks and provide recommendations to companies, industry groups, governments, or organizations.

Interested in the competition?

Competition Overview

High school students from 13-19 years old

Eligibility

Free

Entry Fee

November 9, 2025

Submission Deadline

April 27 - May 1, 2026

National Symposium

📌 Note: Aralia is not the organizer of this competition. For official rules, deadlines, and updates, please refer directly to the competition organizer. Aralia provides listings and information about competitions for student reference. Aralia is an online education platform offering competition preparation classes to students worldwide.

Competition Details

1. Eligibility

Students must be 13-19 years old by August 1, 2025 (all types of schooling are allowed). Students must be attending high school (grades 9–12) in the U.S. or its territories.

Students are typically juniors or seniors. Sophomores may participate only via petition, with a teacher/parent contacting MTFC and providing proof of advanced math coursework. MTFC will confirm approval by email.

U.S. citizens or permanent residents attending high school abroad may participate if they can join meetings during U.S. Central Time business hours and have reliable internet.

Mathematics Background: Students must have taken or be taking at least one junior/senior-level math course, such as statistics, calculus, pre-calculus, probability, mathematical modeling, or a comparable advanced course.

2. Team Rules

Teams can include one to five students. Each team must have an adult “coach” noted on the submission.

Returning students may join again but must choose a new or substantially different project topic. However, Former 1st-place winners cannot win another award.

3. Results

Finalists will be announced, along with Regional Finalist Events from March 16-20, 2026.

4. Prizes

Students will split $60,000 worth of scholarship prizes. Below is the awards summary for finalists:

1st Place: $25,000
2nd Place: $15,000
3rd Place: $10,000
4th Place: $5,000

Certificates: Scholarship winners receive mailed recognition certificates.

Helen Galt Awards:

School Support Award: $1,000 to the school with the most Semi-Finalist teams.
Educator Awards: $1,000 stipend to coaches of scholarship winners.

Climate Resilience Award: One team receives a summer internship with $1,500 per member stipend.

ARCH Paper Publications: 1st and 2nd place winners will be submitted to the Actuarial Research Clearing House (ARCH) for online publication.

Scholarship funds can only be paid to U.S. colleges/universities.

Timeline

Registration Opens: August 25, 2025
Launch Webinar: September 8, 2025
Scenario Phase Workshop: October 8, 2025
Registration Closes: November 9, 2025
Team Office Hours: November 19, 2025
Scenario Phase Submissions Due: December 8, 2025
Semifinalist Announcement: December 15, 2025
Project Phase Workshop: December 17, 2025
Project Infographic Due: February 2, 2026
Project Reports Due: March 2, 2026
Regional Finalist Events: March 16-20, 2026
Final Videos & Papers Due: April 8, 2026
National Symposium: April 27 – May 1, 2026

Phases

1. Scenario Phase

Teams receive one Scenario Quest document with background, mission questions, and project-topic prompts.

Submission Must Include:

Scenario Quest Response (PDF or Word), submitted by the listed deadline.
Waiver Forms for every team member and the coach, submitted via the ICS Dashboard.

Teams passing the Scenario Phase will be recognized as Modeling the Future Challenge Semi-Finalists and move on to the Project Phase of the Challenge, where you will conduct your own actuarial research project. As part of the Semi-Finalist award package, teams will be matched with an actuary mentor who will guide them through the critical steps of the “Actuarial Process” used to complete their project report.

2. Project Phase

This phase has an Open Theme, where teams choose their own project topic (it may differ from the Scenario Phase proposal and can be changed anytime during the phase).

Complete Submission Includes:

Visual Highlight of a Risk + Mitigation: A visual communication piece (video, graphic, etc.) explaining the project’s risk and mitigation strategy.
Project Report (max 25 pages)

Climate Resilience Award Addendum: To qualify, teams must submit a 2–5 page addendum including: Community Scope • Climate Hazard • Risk Mitigation Strategy • Stakeholders • Implementation Plan • Impact Goals

3. Finalist Phase

Teams selected as finalists will have additional time to update their project report and to prepare a live presentation for the Modeling the Future Challenge Symposium.